Dr. Thomas P.M. Barnett (left) with Dr. Mohsen Milani (right). (Photo by Corey Lepak)
The Center for Strategic and Diplomatic Studies (CSDS) at the USF College of Arts and Sciences welcomed Dr. Thomas P.M. Barnett, leading geopolitical strategist and bestselling author of “The Pentagon’s New Map,” for a public discussion on America’s standing among the international community and its geopolitical challenges.
As a renowned geopolitical strategist, Barnett has presented his worldview and strategic-planning concepts to universities, military commands and academies, and government agencies and corporations across the financial, energy, agriculture, and defense industries.
In his talk held at the USF Marshall Student Center on Oct. 4, “A New Conversation About America’s Map,” he described America’s current international standing and the three big geopolitical challenges America faces: climate crisis, shifting demographics, and the rise of global middle-class consumption.
The basis of the discussion was centered on his newest book, “America’s New Map: Restoring Our Global Leadership in an Era of Climate Change and Demographic Collapse.”
Dr. Mohsen Milani, executive director of the CSDS and a professor in the School of Interdisciplinary Global Studies, led the discussion and asked Barnett to define what a geopolitical strategist is.
Geopolitical strategists, Barnett explained, are concerned with the larger “superstructure.”
“It's how people, companies, and nations are organized; it’s how nations come together and interact and organize themselves,” he said. “We're about telling the story about how the world got here, what's going on in the world, and where the world can go next.”
Barnett emphasized that we should plan to prepare for the major changes happening with climate change, an aging population, and “the emergence of a global majority middle class.”
“I’ve got these three big structural changes happening between now and 2070,” Barnett explained.
But, before we get to the other side of those changes, he said we will experience decades of what he described as a “zone of turbulence.”
Barnett’s latest book, “America’s New Map: Restoring Our Global Leadership in an Era of Climate Change and Demographic Collapse,” served as the basis for his discussion. (Photo by Corey Lepak)
With the climate changing, which Barnett explained is already “baked into the system,” we are going to see stronger weather systems, mass migrations and changes in the lower latitudes of the world.
“It’s happening all across the board. We’re seeing species move toward the poles; we’re seeing clouds move toward the poles; it’s shifting called ‘climate velocity,’ – the wheat belt in North America, for example, moves 25 kilometers north every year, which means we’re going to be growing wheat outside Fairbanks Alaska by mid-century,” he said.
His book outlines why America should consider taking actions now to minimize the risks associated with climate change, specifically as it will cause mass migrations to the North.
That’s the “punchline” of his book, he says.
“The punchline is to get you to break out of the mindset that says, ‘Hey, my best answer here is walls,'” he says.
Barnett emphasized that more connection of the North to the South will be needed in something he describes as a new form of state affiliation. These new connections will be key to addressing the impacts of the three big globalization shifts America will soon face.
“There are going to be two types of people in the world across this century. There are going to be people who are put on the move by climate change and people who are going to be welcoming or repelling people put on the move by climate change,” he said.
In addition to global dynamics shifting from an East-West to a North-South, Barnett also emphasized aging demographics worldwide will have different impacts on each country.
“As soon as you get to the point where you're dominated by older people in your society, you stop caring about investment, you're willing to sell things because you want cash over holdings. You want services more than manufacturing. You don't want to plan for the future,” he says.
This, Barnett said, is why we should look to start integrating younger generations into our population ranks. He also described how this combination of climate change and aging demographics leads to a rise in middle class consumption.
“We’re going to get below the fertility rate of replacement so the aging of not just the North, but also South, will be accomplished by 2070,” he said.
The main message of his discussion: America can either re-emerge as a global leader, or turn back in time, conceding its power to competitors.
Barnett signed copies of his book with attendees after the discussion. (Photo by Corey Lepak)
“So, I’ve got these three big structural changes happening now between here and 2070. I'm not against any sort of mitigation efforts. I think it's adapting,” he said. “But, it takes our imagination, our desire to do something bigger than we have. To reimagine the United States and embrace this future because it will be imposed upon us. We're most definitely living in somebody's world [by] 2050. I prefer it be America's world because I prefer the model that we have propagated. I've seen what it's accomplished, I’ve also seen the cost associated with it, but I'm a huge believer that we're the best thing that's ever happened on this planet.”
Learn more about the CSDS and its upcoming events.