The American Association of Geographer’s (AAG) Symposium on Hurricane Risk in a Changing Climate (SHRCC) held its 8th annual symposium in June. The series was organized by AAG member and School of Geosciences’ professor Dr. Jennifer Collins. The symposium facilitated in-depth discussions about hurricane risks and served as the foundation for Collins' book published this month on the same subject.
Participants of the Symposium on Hurricane Risk in a Changing Climate gathered at the venue in Honolulu, Hawaii. (Photo courtesy of Jennifer Collins)
The SHRCC was held this year in Honolulu, Hawaii, with more than 75 participants from around the world, including meteorologists, social scientists, engineers, and graduate students. The four day event featured in-depth discussions on a variety of topics such as tropical cyclones, climate change, risk modeling, and more.
“As lead organizer for the SHRCC, my primary goal was to bring together physical and social scientists, engineers, and practitioners both from academia and the private industry to foster communication and increase the understanding of better ways to deal with tropical cyclone risks,” Collins explained.
Symposium sessions topics included: ‘Signal or noise? Uncertainties in the future tropical cyclone risk projection,’ ‘Risk modeling - the hazards,’ ‘Risk modeling - vulnerability, exposure, and risk management,’ ‘Impact, mitigation, adaptation,’ ‘Climate change and risk.’
Collins was accompanied by several students and peers from the Tampa Bay area, most notably her former PhD student and USF alumnus, Yijie Zhu, who served as the co-organizer for the symposium, and her current master's student, Megan Blair.
The SHRCC also held a poster symposium where participants showcased their current research findings. Blair participated by presenting her preliminary research conducted under Collins, which she will be pursuing further for her thesis.
“The research I presented is the, ‘Influence of the Cone of Uncertainty and Storm Surge Maps in Evacuation Decision Making for Hurricane Ian.’ So far in my research, I've found that of those who stayed home during Hurricane Ian, a significant portion had misunderstandings about what the cone of uncertainty graphic was showing them. Also, out of those who stayed home, an overwhelming majority claim to have used storm surge maps in their decision-making process, yet they didn’t evacuate. These findings suggest that residents may not properly understand their risk based on the official graphics that are provided, revealing a critical need for graphic improvement that would better educate and persuade evacuation to those who are in a potentially life-threatening situations,” Blair said.
As a first-year master’s student, Blair has spent the past academic year preparing her research. She aims for her work to inspire professionals to enhance the clarity of official weather graphics used to warn the public. Reflecting on this experience, Blair feels reinvigorated after connecting with like-minded individuals at the SHRCC.
“This symposium allowed me to not only collaborate with students at the same level of their work as me, but also meet with some of the most prestigious hurricane researchers and social scientists in the world. Their input on my work, and even more so, their encouragement, has truly inspired me to continue working hard and stay passionate in this field. It is of course challenging to be a young student in a field where so much work has been done but knowing that what I am doing is important makes it much easier,” Blair said.
In addition to the SHRCC, Collins just published a book titled, “Advances in Hurricane Risk in a Changing Climate,” which addresses various aspects of hurricane risk topics discussed at the symposium. The book was co-authored by Collins, Zhu, James Done, a project scientist from the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and Paul Wilson, a partner in catastrophe and climate research at Securis Investment Partners LLP.
“The book’s first few chapters are on the frontier of understanding hurricane risks from the physical aspects, followed by the social side that addresses findings and challenges in risk mitigation. Hurricane risks, or tropical cyclone risks in broader terms, are a global issue. The book features many international contributors discussing storms not only in the North Atlantic but also in the Pacific and Indian Oceans,” Zhu explained.
“Arising from the theme of the 2024 SHRCC, this book contains new research on hurricane behavior, our vulnerability, and how we communicate the risk. This book is an essential reading to understand the future of tropical cyclone risk and what it means for society,” Collins said.
Integrating the symposium's theme and the book's content opened doors for collaboration and input from professionals across various fields.
PhD student Megan Blair presenting her research, "Influence of the Cone of Uncertainty and Storm Surge Maps in Evacuation Decision Making for Hurricane Ian," at the poster symposium. (Photo courtesy of Yijie Zhu)
A panel of researchers engaged in a discussion at the Symposium on Hurricane Risk in a Changing Climate. (Photo courtesy of Yijie Zhu)
“Discussions among researchers from academia and the private industry helped bridge the gap between idealized experiments and industry needs. This helps us better identify which projects to prioritize as usually we have many research ideas in mind. For example, a better understanding of hurricanes in a changing climate does not solely mean improving the models but also the way we interpret the results from the models,” said Zhu.
As a researcher and academic, Collins reflects on balancing collaborative projects
like the book, with her individual research and academic responsibilities.
“Being editor of a book allows one to be in the know of cutting-edge research and
becoming familiar with the latest science. So, working on this project was an extension
of our research responsibilities as a doctorial university. One chapter of the book
was actually an important contribution on the public perception of the Saffir Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale compared to other scales like the Tropical Cyclone Severity Scale,
which I published previously with a team from the Netherlands. This consideration
of alternative scales has been a big part of my research in recent years as my evacuation
studies have shown that many base their evacuation decision on the category of the
storm, which has led to life-threatening outcomes based on the current scale in use. The
book took many hours of our time, but it is satisfying to see the final product,”
Collins said.
The SHRCC garnered high praise and positive feedback, leaving participants motivated
and energized by the discussions. Collins and Zhu have already initiated plans for
the next symposium, with considerations to host it in the Tampa Bay area.
Anticipating another opportunity to bring the scientific community together, Collins
encourages potential sponsors for the upcoming event to email her.
To read "Advances in Hurricane Risk in a Changing Climate," visit the Springer Link website. For more information on Dr. Jennifer Collins' research and other updates, please visit the School of Geosciences.