Russia's Invasion of Ukraine: Implications for the Central Region [SUMMARY]
Some of the country’s finest analysts, military minds and academics gathered December 8 at the University of South Florida to examine and explore the future of the Central Region in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The 6th Great Power Competition Conference (GPC6) was held at the Patel Center for Global Solutions on the university’s Tampa campus, following the September postponement of the original conference because of Hurricane Ian.
This conference also marked the first time the newly-created Global and National Security Institute (GNSI) hosted the conference. Formed in June, GNSI will lead USF's strategic effort in the global and national security environment. Executive Director, General (Ret) Frank McKenzie, provided a deeper dive into the institute's plans:
McKenzie also announced that Rick Knop will be the first Chairman of the GNSI Board of Advisors: Knop is the founder and managing member at FedCap Partners, LLC. His private equity group is focused on high-end solutions and technology companies dealing with the Federal government. Previously, Knop co-founded The Windsor Group, which he developed into the premier investment bank for the government/defense contracting industry. Knop is also a member of the Board of Trustees for The George Washington University, as well as the Board of Advisors for The George Washington Law School. He also serves as the Chairman of the External Committee for The George Washington Cybersecurity initiative.
See McKenzie's full speech here.
The Central Region is the AOR (area of responsibility) for the U.S. Central Command (USCENTCOM) based at MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa. The Central Region is comprised of 21 nations, stretching from Northeast Africa across the Middle East to Central and South Asia.
General Michael E. Kurilla, commander of USCENTCOM, delivered the keynote address at GPC6 (his full speech is here), digging into the current and historical importance of the region, with over 40% of the world’s shipping trade going through the Central Region. With many previous resources now unavailable to it, Kurilla believes that Russia sees the Central Region as a potential trade center and is rapidly courting new partners. But they face growing competition from another world power, China, which is trying to push aside the U.S. as the region's primary influencer.
The morning session concluded with the conference's First Panel Discussion, focused
on the topic: Russia's future strategy in the Central Region post-invasion.
See full panel discussion here.
- Dr. Golfo Alexopoulos, Moderator: University of South Florida Professor and Director of the USF Institute for Russian, European and Eurasian Studies (Remarks)
- Rear Admiral Nicholas Homan, Director J2 at USCENTCOM (Remarks)
- Ambassador (Ret) Philip Kosnett, Senior Fellow for the Transatlantic Defense and Security Program at the Center for European Policy Analysis (Remarks)
- Dr. Dmitry Gorenburg, Center Associate at Harvard University, Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies (Remarks)
- Dr. Michael O. Slobodchikoff, Chair/Associate Professor Political Science at Troy University (Remarks)
The afternoon session began with opening remarks from Ambassador Marshall Billingslea, former Assistant Secretary in the United States Treasury Department (his full speech is here). Billingslea focused intensely on the need for the U.S. to continue to stand with Ukraine and provide military, as well as humanitarian aid and support. Billingslea called such support "a quintessentially American thing to do." Beyond the immediate benefits of keeping Ukraine free and independent, there are long-term strategic advantages:
The second Panel discussion of the day focused on the topic: How Has Russia's Invasion of Ukraine Affected Drug Trafficking and Transnational Organized
Crime in the Central Region?
See the full session here.
- Dr. Andrew Whiskeyman, Moderator: COL (Ret), Associate Professor for the College of Information and Cyberspace, National Defense University (Remarks)
- Rear Admiral Curt Renshaw, Director J3 at USCENTCOM (Remarks)
- Marshall Billingslea, Ambassador and former Assistant Secretary in the U.S. Department of Treasury (Remarks)
- Dr. Jonathan Schroden, Director, Special Operations Program/Director, Countering Threats and Challenges Program, CNA (Remarks)
- Matthew Donahue, former Deputy Chief of Operations and Chief of Foreign Operations for the Drug Enforcement Agency (Remarks)
Dr. Randy Larsen, Associate Dean of Research and Scholarship at USF, finished off the day with closing remarks about the future of the Central Region and the role USF can play.
SAVE THE DATE: The next in the GPC conference series will be March 7-9, 2023 at the Marshall Center on the Tampa campus of USF. China's Encroachment in the Central Region will be the theme of that conference.
In addition, a new event was added for March 7: U.S. Central Command Central and South Asia Directors of Military Intelligence Conference 2023. This event will also be held at the Marshall Center at USF, followed by the China Conference on March 8-9. More information on the conference.