Floridians know from experience the trials of evacuating from a life-threatening storm, as witnessed recently when hurricane Helene ravaged the west coast and made landfall in the Panhandle.
But researchers in USF’s College of Public Health (COPH) have been studying how evacuations can be even more complex when disease transmission − such as COVID-19 − enters the mix.
“Risk perception significantly influences evacuation intentions, especially with the compounding threat of an infectious disease,’’ said Elizabeth Dunn, an instructor in the college’s undergraduate program and co-author of the study. Her area of specialization is focused on homeland security and emergency management.
“Understanding how individuals assess these risks is essential for developing effective communication strategies and evacuation plans that enhance public safety during emergencies,’’ she added.
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Dunn and her colleagues published their findings in the paper “Hurricane Risk Perceptions and Evacuation Decision Making in the Post-Vaccination Era of COVID-19 in U.S. Atlantic Coastal States,” which appeared in Weather, Climate and Society − a peer-reviewed journal through the American Meteorological Society.
Their work is especially important because of predictions of more powerful storms due to global warming and the possibility of recurring COVID-19 outbreaks. The study also coincides with International Day for Disaster Risk Reduction (Oct. 13), which calls on countries to harness their education sectors to reduce disaster risks of school-aged children.
Dunn, who is also a public health doctoral student, and her colleagues looked at information from the period of peak COVID-19 transmission in 2021 soon after vaccines became available, disseminating the survey before a major hurricane would affect the region. The compounding threat posed by the pandemic and hurricane season required coastal states to understand evacuation intentions for a major hurricane to enhance the planning process.
While research relating to evacuation behavior and perceptions of risk has increased since the start of the pandemic, “there is minimal understanding of how perceptions have changed now that the COVID-19 vaccine is available,’’ they said.
A total of 1,075 people across seven coastal states participated in the study. Findings revealed that roughly 50% of the participants preferred to stay home if a major hurricane threatened their area, with only about 4% would evacuate to a public shelter. The other 46% indicating they would evacuate somewhere other than a shelter, such as a motel or family/friend’s house.
“A key point is that about half of these people viewed the risk of being in a shelter as more dangerous than enduring hurricane hazards themselves,’’ the paper states.
When considering shelter use, about 44% of respondents said they would evacuate to a shelter before the COVID-19 pandemic. Today, less than one-third would consider relocating to a shelter during another pandemic.
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Statistically significant findings include the relationship between those who lived in evacuation zones A or B, and the choice to shelter in place at home or evacuate to a hotel, where rooms are separated. The authors also found a significant relationship between a person’s level of education and whether they chose to evacuate to a hotel. Additionally, pet ownership often affected a person’s decision to remain home or leave.
In summary, the authors hope safety officials can use the results of this study to strengthen community preparedness and to better plan strategies across diverse populations. Their work is designed to better understand behaviors once vaccines are readily available as well as future hazard planning during a disease outbreak or pandemic.
Along with Dunn, other USF authors of the paper include Dr. Jennifer Collins, with the USF School of Geosciences; and Amy Polen, Dr. Rashida K. Jones and Nagashree R. Rao, with the COPH, Other contributors include Drs. Stephen Murphy of Tulane University and Mark Welford of the University of Northern Iowa.
“This study was particularly eye-opening for me,’’ said Rao, who is earning an MPH in epidemiology. “Before moving to Florida, I hadn’t fully grasped the impact of these challenges. So, this research was especially meaningful as I worked on the data analysis, which revealed how people's evacuation decisions and perceptions have changed in the post-vaccination phase of COVID-19.’’